Methodology

Historical population data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's Decennial Census (2000, 2010, 2020) and American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates for intercensal years. Each city's baseline population reflects the most recent ACS data available (2023-2025 estimates).

The “Without BHC” scenario applies compound decline rates derived from each city's observed 2010-2025 population trajectory. We use a standard exponential model:

Annual decline rates vary by city from -0.5% to -3.4%, reflecting the diverse economic conditions across the Black Hills region. Cities with steeper declines (e.g., Edgemont at -3.4%) have experienced sustained economic headwinds including mine closures and aging-in-place demographics.

BHC's impact on each city is modeled using an intensity scalar relative to Custer (HQ = 100%). Satellite cities receive 15-25% of the per-capita intensity based on the number and type of BHC entities operating in each location.

The employment multiplier methodology draws from Enrico Moretti's research on high-wage job creation in local economies. Each direct BHC position generates between 1.5 and 1.8 additional local service jobs — a conservative figure for rural settings compared to the national average of 5x for tech jobs.

Population growth under the “With BHC” scenario aggregates three sources:

• Direct employees + families — average 2.3 persons per household
• Indirect job holders — from the local multiplier effect
• Settle the West relocations — BHC's relocation incentive program drawing remote workers to the region

Tax revenue projections use existing municipal rate structures with no TIF districts, no abatements, and no public incentives assumed. This is a core BHC principle: all projections reflect organic tax generation.

• Sales tax: 2% municipal rate applied to new consumer spending from BHC employees and indirect workers
• Property tax: Based on new construction and assessed-value increases tied to housing demand

Revenue growth follows a three-phase employment ramp to model realistic startup timelines:

The multiplier framework is based on Enrico Moretti's landmark research in The New Geography of Jobs (2012). Moretti demonstrated that each high-wage tech or knowledge-economy job creates approximately 5 additional local service-sector jobs nationally.

BHC applies a conservative 1.5-1.8x multiplier for the rural Black Hills setting, where market depth is shallower than metropolitan areas. This accounts for the smaller existing service sector and longer commute distances typical of rural communities.

Indirect jobs span multiple sectors:

• Food service and hospitality
• Retail and local commerce
• Healthcare and wellness
• Construction and trades
• Education and childcare

Housing demand projections derive from new household formation — both direct BHC employees and Settle the West relocations. Each new household is assumed to require one housing unit, with construction timelines modeled over the 10-year forecast.

School enrollment projections use demographic data on family composition for relocating households:

This creates a self-reinforcing cycle for rural school districts: new families increase enrollment, which increases state funding allocations, which improves educational quality, which attracts additional families.

Housing unit projections account for both new construction and absorption of existing vacant housing stock. In several Black Hills cities, vacancy rates above 10% provide immediate capacity before new construction is required.